FameEX Hot Topics | How Far Could Bitcoin Fall?

Bitcoin dropped to a four-month low of $74,500 on April 7, as global markets responded to rising geopolitical and economic tensions. Risk assets, including crypto, saw heavy selling after former U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed plans to implement sweeping global tariffs. The announcement sparked widespread uncertainty, contributing to a staggering $9.5 trillion decline across global equity markets.

Recession concerns are also weighing heavily on investors. As fears of a U.S. economic slowdown grow louder, traders have started fleeing high-risk assets. For Bitcoin, that’s raised a critical question: how much further can it fall? The cryptocurrency is now hovering near a key technical threshold—the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently around $77,500. Historically, this level has acted as a reliable dividing line between bullish and bearish trends.

Market analysts like Ted Pillows believe Bitcoin must reclaim this 50-week EMA to avoid steeper losses. If BTC fails to close back above it, a slide toward the $69,000–$70,000 range could follow—levels that correspond with Bitcoin’s 2021 cycle highs. Pillows also flagged $67,000 as a possible target, a level tied to Michael Saylor’s average Bitcoin entry price, adding to the psychological significance of that zone.

On-chain data, however, offers some hope of near-term support. According to Glassnode, around 50,000 BTC are held near the $74,000 level, a significant cost-basis cluster where many investors appear to be holding firm. These coins haven’t moved since March 10, suggesting conviction rather than capitulation. Altogether, roughly 175,000 BTC are held between $74,000 and $70,000, forming a critical demand zone.

Still, downside risks persist. Glassnode’s data shows that short-term holder cost bases remain well above current prices, with the “max pain” threshold near $69,000. If Bitcoin loses this support and the 50-week EMA fails, fractal analysis suggests a broader correction could extend down to the $50,000 level—aligning with the long-term 200-week EMA and potentially marking the next major floor.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.