FameEX Weekly Market Trend | April 3, 2025
2025-04-03 09:06:37
1. Key Insights on Crypto Market Trends
From March 31 to April 2, the BTC spot price swung from $82,204.35 to $88,462.1, a 7.61% range.
The key statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) over the past three days are as follows:
1) On April 1, Fed’s Williams stated that the current economy is not experiencing stagflation, policy adjustments will rely on data amid high uncertainty, and long-term inflation expectations remain stable. The assessment of tariff impacts is still in the early stages.
Barkin mentioned that now is not the time to predict how many rate cuts will happen this year and expressed concerns about the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment. He also noted that the balance sheet reduction may slow down and last longer.
2) On April 2, Fed’s Daly stated that uncertainty has not caused businesses to stall. Barkin mentioned that the bond market reflects a higher risk of recession, and tariffs pose challenges for inflation and employment. He noted that there are no signs of stagflation and there is no rush to cut rates.
Goolsbee stated that if consumers stop spending due to uncertainty or businesses halt investments, the economy could be thrown into turmoil. Theoretically, tariffs should have only a temporary impact on prices, but considering retaliatory tariffs and taxation on intermediate goods, the actual effects may be more prolonged. He noted that despite surveys showing business and consumer confidence is “almost at rock bottom”, real-world data still indicates robust U.S. economic growth. He maintained his previous outlook, expecting rate cuts within the next 12 to 18 months.
3) On April 1, ECB President Lagarde stated that inflation is close to the target and reiterated that Trump’s tariff policies could reduce Eurozone growth by at least 0.3 percentage points.
4) On April 2, ECB Governing Council member Rehn mentioned that if the data confirms the baseline scenario, the appropriate monetary policy response would be a rate cut in April. The ECB meeting also discussed the impact of AI, stating that if businesses can endure the “initial pains”, they will benefit from AI in the long run.
Federal officials are currently focused on the global economic impact of U.S. tariff policies, while ECB officials lean towards a dovish stance, favoring rate cuts.
Hut 8 Mining and Eric Trump, the second son of former U.S. President Donald Trump, have announced the establishment of American Bitcoin, aiming to set new standards for Bitcoin mining. American Data Centers, owned by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, will merge with American Bitcoin and hold a 20% stake in the company. American Bitcoin is a mining business majority-owned by the publicly listed crypto mining firm Hut 8. They plan to jointly build the world’s largest digital currency mining enterprise and intend to establish their own “Bitcoin reserve”.
On April 1, crypto KOL and former FTX community partner Benson Sun analyzed on social media that at 18:30 today, ACT suddenly crashed by 50% due to Binance adjusting the leverage position limit for ACT. The maximum position for 1X leverage was reduced to $4.5 million, causing market makers whose positions exceeded the limit to be liquidated at market price. This led to a sharp drop in contract prices, creating a huge price gap between futures and spot, which subsequently triggered a crash in the spot market as well. Binance announced the adjustment at 15:32 on April 1, with the new limit taking effect at 18:30, leaving users less than three hours to react. As an industry leader, Binance is expected to handle this situation appropriately.
U.S. Representatives Zach Nunn (Republican) and Jim Himes (Democrat) have reintroduced the Financial Technology Protection Act, which passed the House last year but made no progress in the Senate. The new bill proposes the creation of an inter-agency task force, including the Department of Justice, the Treasury, the FBI, and crypto industry experts, to combat illicit financing and terrorism-related activities on digital asset platforms. This bipartisan initiative has received support from the Trump administration, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to balance security and innovation to maintain its global financial leadership.
2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators
Overall market cap and volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Altcoin Season Index and Bitcoin Dominance: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Crypto ETFs Net Flow: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
CoinMarketCap 100 Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/cmc100/
(Used to measure the overall performance of the top 100 cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap)
Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Over the past three days, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, trading volume, market activity, and altcoin performance have experienced minor fluctuations.
Bitcoin ETFs saw a significant net inflow of funds, while Ethereum experienced a slight outflow. Meanwhile, the prices of major cryptocurrencies and large-cap altcoins also showed slight volatility. Due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, the Fear & Greed Index stands at 24, nearing its recent bottom.
3. Perpetual Futures
The 7-day cumulative funding rates for BTC and ETH on the top 8 exchanges are 0.5252% and 0.7249%, respectively, indicating a strong bullish sentiment across the market, with expectations of a continued uptrend.
Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:
Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:
Over the past three days, BTC contract open interest has remained stable, while ETH has seen a slight decrease. Short-term speculators with a high-risk appetite are largely staying on the sidelines.
4. Global Economic and Crypto Sector Developments
Macroeconomy
1) On March 31, global debt surpassed $300 trillion, with gold and Bitcoin potentially serving as hedging tools.
2) On March 31, the Eurozone’s March final manufacturing PMI was 48.6 (expected: 48.7, previous: 48.7); the UK’s March final manufacturing PMI was 44.9 (expected: 44.6, previous: 44.6).
3) On March 31, the U.S. March ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.0 (expected: 49.5, previous: 50.3); China’s official March manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (expected: 50.5, previous: 50.2).
4) On April 1, Ed Yardeni, a veteran strategist and one of Wall Street’s biggest bulls, warned that the cumulative impact of tariffs could increasingly lead to stagflation. If stagflation occurs, the U.S. stock market is expected to enter a bear market.
5) On April 1, UK interest rate futures indicated that the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by about 55 basis points by the end of 2025.
6) On April 1, Japan’s February unemployment rate was 2.4% (expected: 2.5%, previous: 2.5%).
7) On April 2, the Eurozone’s March preliminary annual CPI came in at 2.2% (expected: 2.2%, previous: 2.3%); the monthly CPI was 0.6% (expected: 0.6%, previous: 0.4%).
8) On April 2, the Eurozone’s March overall inflation rate was 2.2%, while the February unemployment rate hit a record low of 6.1%, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will proceed with a rate cut in April.
9) On April 2, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene stated that inflation expectations remain stable, but expressed concerns that supply may fall short of expectations.
Cryptocurrency Industry Updates:
1) On March 31, the trading volume of the top 10 stablecoins dropped to one-fourth of its December bull market level.
2) On March 31, an Iranian official was accused of embezzling over $21 million in crypto assets during an investigation into a centralized exchange (CEX).
3) On March 31, Elon Musk stated that the U.S. government has no plans to use Dogecoin.
4) On April 1, daily crypto trading volume fell 70% from its U.S. election peak of $126 billion to $35 billion.
5) On April 1, Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded their worst Q1 returns in seven years.
6) On April 1, BlackRock’s CEO stated that asset tokenization is the most disruptive financial innovation since ETFs and warned that the U.S. dollar risks losing its global reserve currency status, potentially being replaced by Bitcoin and other digital assets.
7) On April 1, the Solana Policy Institute was established to promote crypto awareness among Washington lawmakers.
8) On April 2, FTX announced it would begin using its $11.4 billion cash reserves on May 30 to repay major creditors.
9) On April 2, OKX appointed former NYDFS superintendent Linda Lacewell as Chief Legal Officer, following the previous CLO’s efforts in securing a $500 million settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice.
10) On April 2, Hong Kong proposed expanding family office tax exemptions to include virtual assets. A survey found that 25% of Hong Kong respondents wish to hold virtual assets, with BTC being the most popular.
11) On April 2, Coinbase’s IPO filings revealed that it receives 50% of the residual revenue from Circle’s USDC reserves. Coinbase also reported its worst quarter since FTX’s collapse, with Q1 stock prices down 33%.
12) On April 3, Grayscale executives stated that the impact of tariffs on crypto may have already been “priced in”, with the worst likely over.
13) On April 3, the CEO of the Blockchain Association announced her resignation to join the Solana team.
14) On April 3, Google Cloud reported that North Korean hackers are impersonating remote workers to target blockchain projects, shifting their focus from the U.S. to Europe.
15) On April 3, the decentralized stablecoin protocol Usual partnered with blockchain security firm Sherlock to launch a $16 million bug bounty program to identify critical vulnerabilities in its codebase.
16) On April 3, India’s Axis Bank, one of the country’s top five banks, announced its adoption of JPMorgan’s blockchain payment system.
Regulation & Crypto Policy:
1) On March 31, U.S. crypto investors must file their 2024 tax returns by April 15. The FDIC revoked its policy requiring banks to obtain approval before offering crypto services.
2)On March 31, a U.S. SEC commissioner urged Congress to accelerate crypto reforms with a seven-point framework. The California legislature officially introduced the Bitcoin Rights Act (AB-1052).
3) On March 31, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee chairman criticized Donald Trump and his family’s crypto business activities, stating they negatively impact legislative efforts. Rhode Island proposed a bill to allow residents to trade up to $10,000 in Bitcoin per month tax-free.
4) On April 1, Brazil banned large pension funds from investing in cryptocurrencies, while Australian regulators warned that crypto ATMs pose money laundering and fraud risks.
5) On April 1, it was reported that Russia’s Irkutsk region might implement a year-round ban on crypto mining starting April 1.
6) On April 1, data showed that 47 countries have eased or simplified crypto regulations since 2020.
7) On April 2, EU regulators warned that the U.S.’s pro-crypto policies could increase risks to the traditional financial system, while multiple UK industry associations urged the government to designate crypto as a “strategic priority”.
8) On April 2, BlackRock received FCA approval to register as a crypto asset company in the UK, with its CEO promising to open private markets to millions of retail investors.
9) On April 2, the U.S. government is expected to complete a full audit of its Bitcoin and other crypto holdings by April 5. U.S. lawmakers are expected to reintroduce a bill allowing retirement accounts to allocate crypto assets, supporting Trump’s policy agenda.
10) On April 2, China’s National Development and Reform Commission Deputy Director Li Chunlin stated that China would explore blockchain technology to facilitate key data integration into on-chain systems.
Other News:
1) On March 31, Trump stated that he would not rule out using military force to obtain Greenland. On the same day, he also declared that starting a third presidential term is no joke, and that allowing Vance to take office and then stepping down is one possible approach.
2) On March 31, spot gold broke through $3,100 per ounce, setting a new historical high.
3) On April 1, OpenAI completed a $40 billion funding round, setting the record for the largest funding in private tech companies. DeepSeek's monthly visits surpassed ChatGPT.
4) On April 2, sources revealed that U.S. Republicans are secretly drafting a tax bill to increase the individual state and local tax deduction from $10,000 to $25,000.
5) On April 2, Iran reiterated that it will never seek, produce, or acquire nuclear weapons under any circumstances.
5. Market Outlook
From April 3 to April 6, the medium-term trading strategy will still be applied: for the BTC spot, maintain the sell order at $169,400 and the buy orders at $73,970, $59,935, and $45,900, respectively.
For the ETH spot, sell orders are placed at $5,125, while dip-buy orders are set at $1,730.
Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research Institute, pointed out that with U.S. President Trump’s new tariff plan, Bitcoin’s safe-haven properties are gaining more attention. His proposal of a “unified 20% tariff” has sparked market concerns over fiat currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar, especially amidst rising inflation expectations. Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank and Chris Weston from Pepperstone both warned that if the policy is implemented, the global economy could face a “stagflation” risk, where rising costs constrain economic growth. From an economic fundamentals perspective, if the tariff is enacted, it could raise manufacturing costs and exacerbate inflation. This event could extend market uncertainty. In this environment, the demand for Bitcoin as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset is expected to increase significantly.
Risk Reminder: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors are advised to control their positions and implement stop-loss strategies. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice from this exchange.
Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.