FameEX Weekly Market Trend | September 9, 2024

1. BTC Market Trend

From September 5 to September 8, the BTC spot price swung from $52,724.64 to $58,315.63, a 10.6% range. The fluctuations in Bitcoin last week were mainly driven by market concerns over Harris defeating Trump, the potential for the Democratic Party to continue governing the U.S. in the next term, and Elon Musk accepting Trump’s invitation to lead the Efficiency Commission in the next administration.

Over the past four days, key statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have been as follows:

1) On September 5, Bostic stated that price pressures are quickly and broadly easing. Daly said that it’s difficult to find evidence that the labor market is weakening. Overly tight policies could lead to additional, unwanted slowdowns in the labor market.

2) On September 6, Goolsbee stated that interest rates need to be cut not only soon but also multiple times. The economic data supports several rate cuts. When asked about larger rate cuts, he emphasized the dot plot, which doesn’t indicate inflation falling so quickly or unemployment rising so high. Market pricing is very similar to the Fed’s forecasts. He was concerned that maintaining this level of tightening could increase the likelihood of a recession. Waller expressed support for “early” rate cuts if appropriate.

3) On September 7, Williams indicated the readiness to begin the rate-cutting process but was not yet prepared to specify the extent of the initial cut. Rates should decrease significantly, though the speed and target for reductions remain unclear. Waller expressed support for early rate cuts if warranted and indicated backing for more substantial cuts if needed. Goolsbee stated that there is a broad consensus within the Fed that multiple rate cuts will occur, with the path for cuts over the coming months being more important.

The historian Allan Lichtman, known as the “U.S. election prophet”, has predicted that Harris will defeat Trump this November and move into the White House. Lichtman has accurately predicted almost every U.S. presidential election for the past 40 years. His prediction is based on a set of propositions, without considering polling trends. Of the 13 key factors, he found that 8 favor Harris. He stated that Harris benefits from the lack of a strong third-party candidate following Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s failed independent run, positive short- and long-term economic indicators, major legislative achievements by the Biden administration, and the absence of social unrest or scandals attributable to the White House. Another advantage for her is that she doesn’t need to go through a party nomination battle to succeed Biden.

On September 6, Trump said on Thursday that if he wins the election in November, he will establish a Government Efficiency Commission led by Musk. This commission will create an action plan to completely eliminate fraud and improper payments within six months, which will save the U.S. trillions of dollars while maintaining the same level of government services. Musk said on social media, “If given the chance, I look forward to serving the United States. No pay, no title, no recognition needed.” Trump, adopting Musk’s proposal, plans to roll out an economic plan to reduce the cost of living, called “Make America Affordable Again.” Following the announcement, Dogecoin (DOGE) surged, driving Bitcoin’s price upward. Musk is expected to become the world's first trillionaire by 2027.

According to a post on the X (formerly Twitter) platform by @tier10k, Telegram quietly updated its Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ), removing the phrase: “All Telegram chats and group chats are private conversations between participants. We do not process any requests related to them.”

Telegram’s founder, Pavel Durov, issued a statement thanking people for their support and explaining the reason for his arrest in France. He said: “Last month, upon arriving in Paris, I was questioned by the police for four days. They told me I might be held personally responsible for others illegally using Telegram because French authorities hadn’t received a response from Telegram. If a country has complaints about platforms like Telegram, they should sue the service itself, not its CEO.”

Source: BTCUSDT | FameEX 

From September 9 to September 11, it is recommended to closely monitor buying opportunities for the ETH spot and other major cryptocurrencies. There is no need to cancel any previously suggested buy and sell orders for BTC and ETH.

2. Blockchain Mastery & Trading Tips

When it comes to fundamental analysis, it’s crucial to first understand the attributes of cryptocurrencies. Let’s take a look at the following chart.

Source: http://m.cyol.com/gb/articles/2024-07/19/content_99j3wXTa3M.html

According to data from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), as of June 2024, the global payment currencies ranked by amount are as follows: the US Dollar (47.08%), the Euro (22.72%), the British Pound (7.08%), the Chinese Yuan (4.61%), and the Japanese Yen (3.75%).

Cryptocurrencies are also part of the global payment currency system. With the number of people holding and trading cryptocurrencies exceeding 200 million in 2024, cryptocurrencies have become a supplementary form to national fiat currencies, enhancing the free flow of global financial capital.

Data from the first half of 2022 showed that cryptocurrencies accounted for 0.68% of the global payment system. According to the chart, this places cryptocurrencies in the 14th position, with no updated statistics available online.

For many years, the United States, as the sole superpower, has controlled the global economy through its “dollar hegemony” and “oil hegemony”, with the dollar’s anchoring effect being very strong. In the cryptocurrency space, stablecoins such as USDT, USDC, and FDUSD are all pegged to the dollar, which creates a significant competitive advantage for the dollar in the Web 3.0 realm. Currently, stablecoins pegged to the dollar make up approximately 99.3% of the market. This means that any financial operations by the Fed that cause fluctuations in the dollar’s exchange rate can directly impact stablecoins and the entire cryptocurrency market.

Fundamental analysis requires a top-down examination of the global macroeconomic and political situation, news and new technologies in various sectors and public chains of cryptocurrencies, and the tokenomics of the cryptocurrencies being traded. It is essential to have a basic understanding of blockchain technology, information collection and organization skills, and knowledge in probability analysis and statistics.

Our FameEX Weekly Market Trend, which includes sections like “important crypto news (Bitcoin Market Trend)” and "global macro and cryptocurrency industry updates (Industry Roundup)”, provides fundamental information needed for trading, focusing on short-term and medium-term timeliness. Staying sensitive and attentive to these news updates will help us achieve better profitability.

When further breaking down this information, we find that the current global macroeconomic and political factors influencing Bitcoin (BTC) price fluctuations, in order of their impact, are:

1) Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) policy movements

2) US economic data such as CPI and non-farm payrolls that influence Fed rate hikes or cuts

3) Developments in the US elections and changes in US support and regulatory policies for cryptocurrencies outside of election years

4) Major geopolitical events such as wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, etc.

5) Failures of major cryptocurrency exchanges like FTX, bankruptcies of well-known crypto firms like Three Arrows Capital, and other significant institutional collapses

6) Trends in major global investment assets such as US and European stock indices, gold, the dollar, commodities, and US Treasury securities affecting the cryptocurrency market

7) Support and regulatory policy changes for cryptocurrencies by G20 countries (including the EU), excluding the US

8) Central bank policy movements in major economies like the UK, China, Japan, and others

9) Significant new applications of cryptocurrencies in payment fields like Mastercard and other related areas

10) Development and usage progress of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in various countries

In future discussions, we will continue to briefly outline the fundamental and technical analyses for different sectors, public chains, and cryptocurrencies.

3. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators

Overall market cap analysis, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

24h trading volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

4. Perpetual Futures

The cumulative funding rates for major mainstream cryptocurrencies over the past 7 days are currently in a state of balance between long and short positions, with long leverage slightly higher. This suggests that the end of the consolidation phase is near. Starting in October, the probability of Bitcoin’s daily candlesticks showing a strong upward or downward trend is increasingly likely.

Source: CoinAnk

In the past four days, both BTC and ETH futures open interest has decreased slightly.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Note: All the above information is provided for reference purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment advice.

5. Industry Roundup

1) On September 5, the European new committee announced that it would decide on cryptocurrency policies for the next five years; Siemens issued a €300 million digital bond on a private blockchain.

2) On September 5, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 142,000, marking the largest gain since June this year but falling short of market expectations. The August unemployment rate was 4.2%, meeting market expectations and setting a new low since June. This is the first decline after four consecutive months of increase. Non-farm employment numbers for June and July were revised down by a total of 86,000.

3) On September 5, U.S. Vice President Harris stated that according to her plan, if income exceeds one million dollars, the capital gains tax rate will be 28%. Putin indicated the readiness to negotiate with Ukraine. Russia “supports” Harris, calling her smile “infectious”.

4) On September 5, in Weifang, Shandong Province, China, a space industry fund of no less than 10 billion yuan was proposed. Ant Group’s Chief Scientist Yan Ying stated that Ant Chain continually improves and integrates technology with a focus on asset security and performance.

5) On September 5, sources revealed that a16z and USV had been subpoenaed by a New York court regarding Uniswap’s regulatory issues.

6) On September 5, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen believed currently, there are no warning signs of financial risk. U.S. cryptocurrency industry lobbying expenditures have increased by 1,386% over the past seven years.

7) On September 5, Mastercard and Mercuryo partnered to launch a debit card for cryptocurrency payments. Cryptocurrency payment company BCB Group has received acquisition interest.

8) On September 6, the Ethereum Foundation AMA stated that long-term plans would use SNARKs to scale the mainnet EVM execution. The main wallet holds ETH valued at $650 million, with reserves covering the Foundation’s expenses for the next 10 years.

9) On September 6, U.S. courts fined $209 million for a Ponzi scheme disguised as a cryptocurrency and carbon investment project. A 19-year-old Singaporean crypto trader was attacked during an offline USDT transaction, with two suspects arrested by the police.

10) On September 6, U.S. Senator Lummis said that the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act could reduce U.S. debt by half by 2045.

11) On September 6, the UK FCA indicated that 87% of cryptocurrency company registration applications did not meet approval standards. India’s financial intelligence agency may allow more offshore cryptocurrency exchanges to operate next year. The Fed issued a cease-and-desist order to United Texas Bank over crypto business risk management deficiencies.

12) On September 6, Xi Jinping stated that China has decided to grant zero-tariff treatment to all least developed countries and will provide 80 billion yuan in various forms of aid to Africa over the next three years.

13) On September 7, a Bitwise researcher indicated that the BTC supply shortage is more severe than most people think. Ethereum exchange reserves have dropped to their lowest level since 2016.

14) On September 7, Uniswap Labs CEO stated that scammers are using hacked UN accounts to deceive crypto users. SunPump warned to be cautious of fraudulent auction sites related to this to prevent property loss.

15) On September 7, Vitalik announced that he has no plans to invest in L2 or other token projects in the future and will only donate to valuable projects. The Ethena Growth Lead mentioned that more details may be shared about being an OnlyFans co-founder in the future.

16) On September 7, insiders said the Fed and other regulators are preparing a comprehensive revision of proposed bank capital rules to overcome strong opposition from the industry.

17) On September 7, the Hong Kong Police encouraged the Web3 industry to proactively organize information exchange platforms and actively participate in public-private cooperation. The 2024 Global Asset Management Center Evaluation Index has been released, with Hong Kong ranked 9th but leading Asia in virtual asset management products.

18) On September 7, El Salvador marked the third anniversary of adopting Bitcoin as legal tender, with a floating profit of over $31 million.

19) On September 8, possibly due to Elon Musk’s post of a Black Myth: Wukong composite image, SunWuKong briefly surpassed $0.01, with a 24-hour increase of 62.5%.

20) On September 8, a U.S. judge postponed the ruling date for Trump’s “hush money” case to November 26. The U.S. presidential election result date is November 5. Insiders revealed that Biden’s aides are exploring proposals to establish a U.S. sovereign wealth fund.

21) On September 8, it was reported that Bitcoin ATMs are increasingly targeted by physical and cyber threats. The founder of Render Network had their X account hacked, so avoid clicking on suspicious links.

22) On September 8, Travala.com partnered with Skyscanner to offer cryptocurrency payments for 2.2 million hotels.

23) On September 8, it was reported that the Solana ecosystem L2 network Sonic SVM will begin sales of HyperFuse Guardian Nodes.

24) On September 8, it was reported that tomorrow, China will release August CPI and PPI data. Next Wednesday, the U.S. will release August CPI data, and presidential candidates Harris and Trump will debate on ABC News. Next Thursday, the U.S. will release initial jobless claims for the week ending September 7 and August PPI. The European Central Bank will announce its latest interest rate decision, and next Saturday, China’s State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic conditions.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.