FameEX Weekly Market Trend | April 28, 2025
2025-04-28 11:55:17
1. Key Insights on Crypto Market Trends
From April 24 to 27, the BTC spot price swung from $92,567.88 to $95,720.76, a 3.41% range.
Over the past four days, key remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) include:
1) On April 24, the Fed Beige Book indicated that economic uncertainty has increased due to factors such as tariffs, and the outlook has significantly worsened in multiple regions.
Governor Waller stated that with the rise in unemployment, interest rate cuts may begin.
Harker suggested that the threshold for Fed intervention is “exceptionally high”, and no need for market intervention has been found yet. The uncertainty has certainly put immense pressure on businesses and their planning. The Fed needs to remain patient, and it is too early to adjust rates. If economic data becomes clearer, the Fed may take action in June this year. Trump’s view on the Fed chairman may impact economic data, with rate cuts in May being too early, while June may see a rate cut.
2) On April 25, Governor Waller stated his willingness to wait for the price increases caused by tariffs to dissipate. Significant tariff impacts are unlikely before July.
Governor Kashkari expressed concern that, in the face of increasing uncertainty, businesses might resort to measures such as layoffs.
3) On April 26, the Fed Financial Stability Report indicated that global trade wars and policy uncertainty are the biggest risks to financial stability.
4) On April 24, ECB Governor Nagel believed that price stability is expected to be achieved by 2025.
Governor Knot had a cautiously optimistic view on the euro’s greater role in the international market.
5) On April 25, ECB Governor Rehn stated that the ECB should not rule out the possibility of larger interest rate cuts.
Governor Holzmann said rate cuts must wait for further tariff uncertainty to be resolved before they can be implemented.
Summary: The statements from Fed officials are mixed, with a lower chance of interest rate cuts in May this year, while a June rate cut remains uncertain. The overall stance of ECB officials is hawkish, and no rate cuts are expected in the near future.
The Office of the Governor of California announced that California has surpassed Japan, becoming the fourth-largest economy in the world. According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, California’s nominal GDP has reached $4.1 trillion, surpassing Japan’s $4.02 trillion, ranking just behind the U.S., China, and Germany. Meanwhile, California’s economic growth has outpaced the top three global economies; over the past four years, the state’s economy has grown steadily, with an average annual nominal GDP growth rate of 7.5% from 2021 to 2024.
Paul Atkins was sworn in as Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), marking the official handover of leadership from Gary Gensler. Atkins, who has worked with digital asset companies, is expected to continue leading the temporary shift in the SEC’s previous stance against cryptocurrency. He previously served as an SEC Commissioner and ran a Washington consulting firm specializing in compliance and policy affairs. In addition to his Wall Street connections, Atkins has also served as an advisor to cryptocurrency companies. During his inauguration speech, Paul Atkins stated that his top priority as Chairman would be to provide a solid regulatory foundation for digital assets in a rational, coherent, and principled manner. He committed to transforming the way financial regulatory bodies approach digital asset oversight, promising a “rational” approach. Atkins emphasized his efforts to ensure that the U.S. becomes “the best and safest place in the world” for crypto operations and activities.
2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators
Overall market cap and volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Altcoin Season Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Crypto ETFs Net Flow: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
CoinMarketCap 100 Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/cmc100/
(Used to measure the overall performance of the top 100 cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap)
Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Over the past four days, the total market capitalization and trading volume of cryptocurrencies, as well as market activity and altcoin prices, have been slowly recovering. ETF funds continue to experience significant net inflows, and market confidence has also been largely restored. The prices of major cryptocurrencies and large-cap altcoins are experiencing narrow fluctuations. Currently, the Fear and Greed Index stands at 51, having completely moved away from the bottom panic zone and is now in the mid-range, where bulls and bears are in intense competition.
3. Perpetual Futures
The 7-day cumulative funding rates for BTC and ETH on the top 9 exchanges are 0.0325% and -0.4403%, respectively, indicating that as of April 28, the main market funds still favor BTC. ETH and small-cap altcoins are relatively lacking in funding attention, and their price increases may face significant resistance in the near future.
Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:
Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:
Over the past four days, the contract open interest for BTC and ETH has remained relatively unchanged, indicating that short-term market participants with a high-risk appetite have started to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
4. Global Economic and Crypto Sector Developments
Macroeconomy
1) On April 24, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 19 stood at 222,000, in line with expectations, with the previous value revised from 215,000 to 216,000.
2) On April 24, the Bank of Korea stated that it would continue to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance.
3) On April 24, it was reported that the ECB’s Governing Council would discuss its strategic review from May 6 to 7, considering changes to its strategy for more flexible actions.
4) On April 24, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index for April stood at 52.2, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.8.
5) On April 25, the IMF stated that central banks in Asian countries have room to cut rates to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs.
6) On April 25, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda mentioned that if the forecasted core inflation rate approaches 2%, the central bank will continue to raise rates.
7) On April 25, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China announced that financial laws, including the Financial Stability Law, would be enacted in 2025.
8) On April 25, the ECB’s Chief Economist Philip Lane said that dollar asset allocations have shifted from overweight ratings to a more natural weighting approach.
9) On April 26, the North Korean hacking group Lazarus set up a U.S. shell company to attack the cryptocurrency industry.
10) On April 26, the ECB estimated that the digital euro could replace up to 256 billion euros in banknotes.
11) On April 26, North Carolina’s HB 92 bill was passed, allowing the state treasurer to invest in Bitcoin and other qualified digital assets.
12) On April 26, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that tariffs would significantly reduce income taxes for many people, and that China must make substantial concessions for the U.S. to remove the tariffs.
13) On April 27, next Wednesday, the following reports will be released: China’s official Manufacturing PMI for April, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April, the U.S. ADP Employment Report for April, the U.S. March Core PCE Price Index Year-Over-Year, and the World Gold Council’s Q1 Gold Demand Trends report.
14) On April 27, next Thursday, the U.S. Challenger Job Cuts for April, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final, U.S. April ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the Bank of Japan’s rate decision and Economic Outlook Report will be released.
15) On April 27, next Friday, the U.S. April Unemployment Rate and April Adjusted Nonfarm Payrolls data will be released.
Cryptocurrency Industry Updates:
1) On April 24, it was reported that the CME Group would launch XRP futures.
2) On April 24, 2) On April 24, Ethereum was expected to celebrate the 10th anniversary of its genesis block on July 30 this year. The Ethereum mainnet will execute the Pectra upgrade on May 7.
3) On April 24, the circulation of USDC on the Solana blockchain surpassed 10 billion. The “SOL version of MicroStrategy” DDC filed documents with the SEC to raise $1 billion in the future.
4) On April 24, CZ Zhao Changpeng warned people about fraud projects that use chat records implying endorsement.
5) On April 25, a Coinbase executive stated that sovereign wealth funds and insurance funds quietly accumulated Bitcoin in April.
6) On April 25, the Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority issued a warning against companies falsely promoting participation in real estate tokenization pilots.
7) On April 25, the official Trump Coin clarified details for the dinner event: the first 220 will qualify based on time-weighted holdings, not block browser rankings. Tokens will not be unlocked during the event period, and the initial batch and subsequent unlocks will be delayed by 90 days.
8) On April 25, Russia planned to launch a cryptocurrency exchange for qualified investors. Tether, SoftBank, and Jack Mallers announced a collaboration to launch Bitcoin company Twenty-One.
9) On April 26, Korea’s major right-wing political party pushed for new laws to promote the development of the cryptocurrency industry.
10) On April 26, Sui launched a digital MasterCard, enabling European users to make crypto payments.
11) On April 26, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves might announce details in the coming weeks.
12) On April 26, Bitcoin’s market share rose to a nearly four-year high, followed by a general rally in altcoins.
13) On April 27, it was reported that Circle would launch a new payment and cross-border remittance network.
14) On April 27, the altcoins that have submitted applications for U.S. spot ETFs are all “U.S. coins” or part of the WLFI investment portfolio.
15) On April 27, it was said that the TV series “Peaky Blinders” would be adapted into a blockchain video game and Web3 ecosystem.
16) On April 27, crypto analyst @ali_charts posted on social media that nearly $9 billion of funds flowed into the crypto market in the past week, showing a strong recovery in investor interest.
17) On April 27, Coinbase stated that the legality of staking should be protected, and only five states in the U.S. remain opposed to staking services.
Regulation & Crypto Policy:
1) On April 24, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency clarified that certain crypto-related activities are legally allowed. Fifteen cryptocurrency and fintech companies are applying for bank charters with the OCC.
2) On April 24, the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to review the new draft of the crypto market structure bill in the coming weeks. The Fed has significantly rescinded its crypto and dollar-token regulatory guidelines.
3) On April 25, NASDAQ suggested to the SEC that clearly categorizing crypto assets is key to future regulation.
4) On April 25, the Central Bank of Russia announced that the digital ruble will be launched in 2026.
5) On April 26, the new chairman of the SEC stated that he would focus on the regulation of digital assets and distributed ledger technology, and committed to establishing clear rules for crypto to address uncertainties. Trump stated that the crypto industry urgently needs clear regulatory policies.
6) On April 26, the Central Bank of Korea will actively participate in drafting stablecoin regulations.
7) On April 27, the SEC approved ProShares Trust’s XRP ETF, which consists of three futures ETFs.
Other News:
1) On April 24, Harvard University filed a federal lawsuit against the Trump administration. Poll results showed that Trump’s approval rating has dropped to its lowest level since taking office.
2) On April 25, after the Kashmir terrorist attack, tensions between India and Pakistan rapidly escalated—time-limited departure orders, airspace closures, and trade suspensions. Pakistan announced a series of retaliatory measures against India. India intensified its response, revoking all visas for Pakistani citizens.
3) On April 26, the U.S. Department of Justice called for the breakup of Google, proposing the forced sale of the Chrome browser.
4) On April 27, Elon Musk’s xAI planned to raise $20 billion, which could become the second-largest startup funding round in history.
5. Market Outlook
From May 1 to May 7, the medium-term trading strategy will still be applied: for the BTC spot, maintain the sell order at $169,400 and the buy orders at $73,970, $59,935, and $45,900, respectively. It is recommended to place a sell order for the ETH spot at $5,125 and set buy orders for bottom-fishing at $1,240.
Risk Reminder: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors are advised to control their positions and implement stop-loss strategies. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice from this exchange.
Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.