FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin May Dip to $91K, But On-Chain Data Signals Strong Market Fundamentals

Bitcoin spot demand may ease this week, but on-chain and technical indicators suggest the market remains fundamentally strong, setting the stage for potential new all-time highs. Despite short-term volatility, analysts remain optimistic. Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin could reach between $110,000 and $120,000 by the second quarter of 2025. This bullish outlook is supported by recent data showing Bitcoin’s weekly close near $94,000 delivered a 53.61% year-over-year return, signaling robust performance since the 2024 halving and a transition into a more mature, sustainable bull cycle.

According to Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., the year-over-year realized price has risen 61.82%, outpacing the 8.98% decline in the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio. This divergence reflects a constructive trend: long-term holders are raising their cost basis faster than speculative price moves. A negative MVRV often precedes major rallies, suggesting Bitcoin is undervalued based on historical on-chain fundamentals. This compression in value offers room for upside if demand strengthens further.

Additional support for this thesis comes from the analysis of realized price by holding cohorts. Currently, short-term (one-month) holders have a cost basis about 5% below the six-month cohort, indicating diminished speculative premiums. This mirrors historical accumulation phases and suggests the market may be five to six weeks away from hitting the typical 180-day breakout point. Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered reinforces this view, citing geopolitical drivers, including U.S. investors shifting assets abroad amid trade war concerns, as a key catalyst for renewed BTC interest.

However, short-term downside risks persist. Bitcoin’s futures market data shows funding rates turned briefly negative on April 24–25 before flipping back positive. The positive rate now suggests an overabundance of long positions, raising the risk of a "long squeeze"—a scenario where a rapid price drop forces long traders to liquidate, deepening the decline. This could push BTC down to $90,500 in the coming days, especially if momentum weakens further.

Technically, Bitcoin has slipped 1.58% since the U.S. market opened on April 28. The RSI also flashed a bearish divergence after BTC failed to hold above $95,000. Price action now points to a possible re-test of the fair-value gap between $90,500 and $88,750, marking a critical level for bulls to defend in the short term.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.