From March 20 to March 23, the BTC spot price swung from $82,963.33 to $86,808.97, a 4.64% range.
In the past four days, key statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) were as follows:
1) On March 21, Fed’s Williams stated that the current moderately restrictive monetary policy is “completely appropriate”. GDP growth is expected to slow this year compared to 2024. Risks to inflation and employment targets have risen, but long-term inflation expectations remain stable. The Fed is in no rush to make its next monetary policy decision. The University of Michigan inflation expectations data is an outlier.
Goolsbee stressed the need to wait amid uncertainty, maintain stable tools, and take a long-term view. The Fed must assess tariff duration, countermeasures, and consumer impact before adjusting policy. Delayed action could push rate cuts further and come at a cost. 2) On March 22, Fed Governor Waller favored maintaining the current pace of balance sheet reduction. As reserves near an adequate level, slowing or stopping the reduction will be appropriate.
3) On March 20, ECB President Lagarde stated that the ECB analysis shows that a 25% U.S. tariff on European imports would reduce Eurozone growth by approximately 0.3 percentage points in the first year. If Europe responds by increasing tariffs on U.S. imports, this figure would further rise to about 0.5 percentage points. Tariffs and retaliatory measures could increase Eurozone inflation by 0.5 percentage points. 4) On March 21, the ECB Economic Bulletin indicated that despite improvements in survey indicators, manufacturing remains a drag on growth. Persistently high geopolitical and policy uncertainty is expected to put pressure on Eurozone economic growth, particularly in investment and exports.
Governing Council Member Centeno stated that Eurozone economic growth will evolve moderately, and a trade war may ultimately have a negative impact on prices.
Governing Council Member Villeroy believed that Trump’s policies have a relatively small impact on European inflation.
Governing Council Member Muller indicated that the economy is expected to gradually improve.
5) On March 22, ECB Vice President de Guindos stated that decisions would be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Increased defense spending in Europe is a top priority, but fiscal stability must also be ensured.
Governing Council Member Villeroy said that the timing and scale of the ECB’s rate cuts depend on data. Governing Council Member Stournaras suggested that all signs point to a rate cut in April. However, with one month to go, it is uncertain whether the cut will happen. The ECB still expects two more rate cuts in 2025, with the final rate at 2%. 6) On March 23, ECB chief economist Philip Lane indicated that the necessity of a digital euro is increasing to counter stablecoins and the payment systems of non-EU tech giants.
All in all, Fed officials, including Powell, have generally taken a hawkish stance. The impact of U.S. tariffs on whether the ECB will cut rates in April is growing.
Key Points from the Fed’s FOMC Statement and Chair Powell's Press Conference
FOMC Statement: 1) Overview: Approved by an 11-1 vote to keep the benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Governor Waller dissented, favoring continued balance sheet reduction at the current pace. The statement no longer describes risks as “broadly balanced” and notes increased economic uncertainty.
2) Rate Outlook: The dot plot keeps the median forecast unchanged for the next three years, projecting two rate cuts this year and next, though more officials now support fewer or no cuts in 2025.
3) Inflation Outlook: Raised PCE inflation and core PCE inflation forecasts for this year and next, still expecting inflation to reach the target by 2027, with most officials seeing risks tilted to the upside. 4) Economic Outlook: GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2027 were lowered across the board, with this year’s forecast sharply reduced from 2.1% to 1.7%. The unemployment rate for this year was slightly raised to 4.4%, with no changes for other years. 5) Balance Sheet Policy: Balance sheet reduction will slow starting in April, with Treasury runoff decreasing from $25 billion to $5 billion, while the MBS cap remains at $35 billion.
Key Points from Powell’s Press Conference
1) Rate Outlook: No urgency to adjust policy stance, with a wait-and-see approach based on data. The Fed can ease or maintain its restrictive stance as needed and is at a stage where rate cuts or maintaining the current tight policy are both possible.
2) Inflation Outlook: Inflation remains slightly elevated, and further progress this year may be delayed. The baseline forecast sees inflation as temporary.
3) Economic Outlook: The U.S. economy remains strong, but uncertainty has increased. Recent signs indicate a slowdown in consumer spending, and weak data will be closely monitored. While recession risks have risen slightly among forecasters, they remain low.
4) Employment Outlook: The labor market is stable and balanced, with low hiring and layoff rates. A significant rise in layoffs could quickly impact unemployment but is not yet a major concern at the national level.
5) Balance Sheet Reduction: Slowing the balance sheet runoff is a technical adjustment, extending the process over a longer period. No plans to slow MBS reductions, with a preference to remove MBS from the balance sheet over time.
6) Tariff Impact: The effects of tariffs remain uncertain, with rising short-term inflation expectations. If strong goods inflation persists, tariffs are likely a factor. Staff simulations predict the U.S. will face broad tariff retaliation.
Fed’s dot chart, source: https://www.jin10.com
Overall market cap and volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Altcoin Season Index and Bitcoin Dominance: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Crypto ETFs Net Flow: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
CoinMarketCap 100 Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/cmc100/
(Used to measure the overall performance of the top 100 cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap)
Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Over the past four days, the total crypto market cap, trading volume, and market activity have slightly rebounded. The altcoin season index surged, while Bitcoin’s dominance remained stable, indicating a shift of funds toward mid- and small-cap altcoins.
ETF inflows saw a slight net increase, restoring market confidence. Major cryptocurrencies and large-cap altcoins have started an upward trend. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 31, gradually moving away from recent lows.
Source: CoinAnk
The 7-day cumulative funding rates for BTC and ETH on the top 8 exchanges are 0.1511% and 0.2553%, respectively, indicating a strong bullish sentiment across the market, with expectations of a continued uptrend.
Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:
Source: CoinAnk
Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:
Source: CoinAnk
Over the past four days, BTC contract open interest remained stable, while ETH saw a slight decline, indicating a cautious stance among high-risk appetite traders.
Macroeconomy
1) On March 20, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, indicating a gradual downward trajectory. Governor Bailey expected inflation to decline slowly, with the impact of tariffs on inflation remaining uncertain. 2) On March 20, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 15 came in at 223K, slightly below the forecast of 224K, with the previous figure revised up to 221K from 220K. 3) On March 20, according to the UK employment data, the three-month ILO unemployment rate for January was at 4.4% (forecast: 4.4%, previous: 4.4%). February jobless claims were at 44.2K, revised from 22K to 2.8K. 4) On March 21, the Eurozone Current Account (January, Seasonally Adjusted) was at €35.4B, down from €38.4B. 5) On March 21, White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that President Trump has the right to criticize the Fed’s decisions and has explicitly expressed his desire for lower interest rates. 6) On March 22, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers warned that the Fed’s sharp slowdown in balance sheet reduction signals bond market fragility. He noted that the sudden QT slowdown reflects worsening demand for U.S. Treasuries, raising fears of a UK-style market crisis. 7) On March 22, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem stated that U.S. tariffs could put downward pressure on Canadian energy prices, reducing profitability for producers. 8) On March 23, second-round data from Japan’s largest trade union (Rengo) showed a fiscal year 2025 average wage increase of 5.40%, slightly down from the initial 5.46%. 9) On March 23, the People’s Bank of China announced plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates when appropriate.
Cryptocurrency Industry Updates:
1) On March 20, Dubai launched a real estate tokenization pilot, projecting a market size of $16 billion by 2033. 2) On March 20, it was reported that Tether is now the seventh-largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, with $33.1 billion in holdings. 3) On March 20, President Trump’s executive director stated in an interview that there are “countless plans” regarding national Bitcoin purchases, adding, “We will implement the best plan,” hinting at a continued Bitcoin reserve strategy. 4) On March 21, Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina stated that cryptocurrencies are considered volatile instruments. 5) On March 21, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) ended its reputational risk review amid strong opposition to debanking in the crypto industry. 6) On March 21, Gotbit’s founder reached a plea agreement with U.S. authorities and will forfeit $23 million in crypto assets linked to market manipulation charges. 7) On March 22, the IMF included Bitcoin and other digital assets in its global economic reporting framework for the first time. 8) On March 22, executives from Trump Media & Technology Group established a new SPAC, seeking at least $179 million in funding to acquire crypto-related companies. 9) On March 22, data scientists reported that the crypto prediction market Polymarket has a 90% accuracy rate in forecasting world events. 10) On March 23, SlowMist founder warned that hackers often pose as investors, journalists, or HR personnel to lure victims via meeting software. If a computer is infected, funds should be transferred immediately, and a full security scan should be conducted.
11) On March 23, the UAE ranked first globally in crypto-friendliness, followed by Singapore and the U.S. 12) On March 23, the U.S. Department of Justice recovered $7 million from a crypto fraud case and urged victims to claim their funds.
Regulation & Crypto Policy:
1) On March 20, Montana proposed legislation to strengthen digital asset regulations, as U.S. fraud losses in 2024 have already exceeded $12.5 billion.
2) On March 20, President Trump stated that the U.S. is leading in cryptocurrency and next-generation fintech, ending the previous administration’s regulatory war on crypto and Bitcoin. He urged Congress to pass landmark legislation establishing simple, common-sense rules for stablecoins and market structure. 3) On March 21, Australia introduced new crypto regulations, pledging to combat “debanking” practices. 4) On March 21, the NYSE submitted a proposal to the SEC to allow Ethereum ETFs to participate in staking.
5) On March 22, South Korea’s financial regulators launched enforcement actions against unregistered overseas crypto exchanges. Prosecutors raided Bithumb, with its former CEO under investigation for allegedly misappropriating company funds to purchase a personal apartment. 6) On March 23, a White House digital asset policy advisor suggested that the Trump administration may use gold profits to increase Bitcoin reserves.
Other News:
1) On March 20, a Nasdaq executive stated that Nasdaq, influenced by the crypto market, would push for 24/7 stock trading. 2) On March 20, NVIDIA announced plans to establish a research center for accelerated quantum computing.
3) On March 21, Wang Huimin, former head of the disciplinary inspection team at China’s Securities Regulatory Commission, came under investigation for serious violations.
4) On March 22, following a meeting with President Trump, the UAE pledged to establish a $1.4 trillion, 10-year investment framework in the U.S. 5) On March 23, President Trump stated that a full ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be achieved soon.
Source: BTCUSDT | FameEX
From March 24 to March 26, the medium-term trading strategy will still be applied: for the BTC spot, maintain the sell order at $169,400 and the buy orders at $73,970, $59,935, and $45,900, respectively.
For the ETH spot, sell orders are placed at $5,125, while dip-buy orders are set at $1,730.
The Fed’s latest dot plot leans hawkish, but Chair Powell’s remarks aimed to reassure the market. The statement and updated dot plot highlight data volatility and the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s rate-cut cycle. The Fed must balance sharply downgraded economic growth projections with higher inflation expectations for 2025. Leading up to the June 18 FOMC decision, Bitcoin’s daily chart may see another round of wide fluctuations.
On March 22, Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard noted that despite positive developments in the crypto space, global tariff concerns would continue to pressure the market, at least until April 2. “I’m eager to see what changes after April 2—perhaps some tariffs will be lifted, but that depends on whether countries can reach an agreement. This remains the biggest driving factor,” he said.
He added that risk assets may lack clear direction until tariff-related concerns are resolved, which could happen between April and July, potentially bringing positive catalysts to the market.
Risk Reminder: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors are advised to control their positions and implement stop-loss strategies. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice from this exchange.
Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.
