FameEX Weekly Market Trend | September 26, 2024

1. BTC Market Trend

From September 23 to September 25, the BTC spot price swung from $62,373.09 to $64,827.6, a 3.94% range. 

In the last three days, important statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) were as follows:

1) On September 23, Fed Governor Waller suggested that another 50 basis points rate cut may be considered if the labor market worsens. Bowman cautioned against large cuts, warning it might signal premature victory over inflation. Despite this, the economy remains strong, and the labor market is near full employment. Harker praised the Fed's economic guidance.

2) On September 24, Fed Governor Goolsbee suggested more rate cuts may be needed over the next year, with significant reductions required. Though unemployment is rising, it remains low. Bostic noted the 50 basis points cut doesn’t “lock in” the pace of future cuts, and sharp rises in unemployment are unlikely. Kashkari anticipated two smaller cuts this year, each by 25 basis points.

3) On September 24, the Chicago Fed report indicated that the current state of the financial industry is the most accommodative since November 2021, which may be beneficial for Bitcoin’s development.

4) On September 25, Governor Bowman stated that a cautious approach would be taken toward further rate cuts, and the possibility of stalled progress in controlling inflation cannot be ruled out.

5) On September 23, ECB Governing Council member Kazaks stated that the direction of interest rates is downward.

6) On September 24, ECB President Lagarde said that the inflation has not yet been conquered.

According to data from CoinGecko, since 2021, the most sponsored sports by the crypto industry are: soccer (33 sponsorships), motorsports (21 sponsorships), esports (16 sponsorships), basketball (8 sponsorships), fighting sports (3 sponsorships), baseball (2 sponsorships), American football (2 sponsorships), and cricket (2 sponsorships).

According to HODL15Capital, at least 40 billionaires hold Bitcoin. The top three on the list are Elon Musk (net worth of $208 billion), Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg ($181 billion), and Oracle founder Larry Ellison ($170 billion). Several crypto industry leaders are also on the list, including Binance founder Changpeng Zhao ($33 billion), Coinbase founder Brian Armstrong ($11 billion), and Gemini founders the Winklevoss twins ($6 billion).

On September 23, Telegram CEO Pavel Durov announced in a post on the app that Telegram has made significant changes to its terms of service. The app’s privacy policy now states that, in the investigation of criminal activities, Telegram will share users’ IP addresses and phone numbers with judicial authorities. Following Bloomberg’s report on these changes, Toncoin (TON), a token associated with Telegram, dropped by about 1%. The token is currently trading at $5.62. Durov stated, “Telegram’s search function is more powerful than other messaging apps as it allows users to find public channels and bots. Unfortunately, some users have abused this feature to sell illegal goods, violating our terms of service. The IP addresses and phone numbers of these users may be shared with law enforcement.” Telegram Wallet will temporarily restrict access for UK users until the company registers as a crypto asset provider.

According to Reuters, on September 25, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced its largest stimulus package since the pandemic outbreak, aimed at lifting the economy out of deflation and back on track toward the government’s growth targets. However, analysts warn that more fiscal aid will be crucial to achieving these goals. The unexpected package, which includes increased funding and rate cuts, is the latest attempt by policymakers to restore confidence in the world’s second-largest economy, following a string of disappointing data that has raised concerns about a long-term structural slowdown in China.

However, analysts question the effectiveness of the PBOC’s liquidity injections, citing extremely weak credit demand from businesses and consumers, and noting the absence of policies to support real economic activity. Julian Evans-Pritchard, an analyst at Capital Economics, commented, “This is the most significant stimulus plan introduced by the PBOC since the pandemic.” He added, “But this alone may not be enough,” suggesting that further fiscal stimulus might be required to bring growth back in line with the official target of around 5% for the year.

Source: BTCUSDT | FameEX 

From September 26 to September 29, continue to focus on trading opportunities for the ETH spot. Watch for sell orders at $3,425 and $5,040, and buy orders at $1,730 and $2,040. For the BTC spot, keep an eye on sell orders at $67,900, $79,870, and $96,820, while maintaining buy orders at $36,720 and $44,370. For other cryptocurrencies, it is recommended to prioritize short-term selling opportunities.

2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators

Overall market cap analysis, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

24h trading volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

3. Perpetual Futures

The 7-day cumulative funding rates for mainstream cryptocurrencies across major exchanges are generally positive, clearly indicating that the overall market sentiment is bullish. Many believe that the second half of this bull market cycle has begun.

Source: CoinAnk

In the past three days, the open interest for BTC and ETH contracts has slightly risen.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Note: All the above information is provided for reference purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment advice.

4. Industry Roundup

1) On September 23, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann expressed caution toward beginning a rate-cutting cycle. The Bank of Canada Governor stated that as progress continues in controlling inflation, it is reasonable to expect further policy rate reductions.

2) On September 23, a survey showed that one in seven U.S. voters holds cryptocurrency and tends to support Trump. Another poll revealed that the U.S. presidential election reflects differences in crypto positions and gender. Trump stated that if he lost the 2024 election, he would not run again. Polymarket’s bets on the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election surpassed $1 billion.

3) On September 23, HODL15Capital reported that 19.7579 million of Bitcoin’s total 21 million supply had been mined, leaving only 5.91% available for future mining.

4) On September 23, the police in Heshun County, Shanxi Province, China, dismantled a USDT fraud ring, arresting 7 people. In Taiwan’s Yunlin County, a cryptocurrency fraud case was cracked, with victims losing over 134 million New Taiwan dollars.

5) On September 23, Harris stated that if successfully elected president, she would help drive investment growth in AI and cryptocurrency sectors. Harris’s campaign office in Arizona was shot at. The U.S. Senate passed a bill to enhance security for presidential candidates.

6) On September 23, DefiLlama’s founder criticized cbBTC for falling below industry standards in transparency. Vitalik Buterin stated that independent stakers are both the “first line of defense” and the “last line of defense” for the Ethereum network.

7) On September 23, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority launched the second phase of its “Digital Hong Kong Dollar” pilot and expanded the project to explore new forms of digital currency.

8) On September 23, Upbit suspended transfers over 1 million KRW with Borabit. Ether.fi reported that domain registrar Gandi.net experienced a security incident, but all user funds remain safe.

9) On September 23, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its interest rates as expected, with a slight easing of its hawkish stance. Australia is set to introduce new regulations requiring most crypto-related companies to obtain financial services licenses.

10) On September 24, the People’s Bank of China announced reductions in reserve requirements, interest rates, and mortgage rates. Governor Pan Gongsheng said the bank will soon lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5%, injecting around 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity into the financial market. Depending on market liquidity, another 0.25-0.5% cut may follow within the year.

11) On September 24, Bitwise reported that some of the most influential figures in finance have begun holding cryptocurrency, with top financial advisors increasingly allocating crypto assets in their portfolios. A Citi report revealed that global family offices have doubled their cryptocurrency investments year-on-year.

12) On September 24, Keyrock stated that most airdrop projects this year collapsed within 15 days of issuance.

13) On September 24, a leading crypto exchange, in cooperation with Indonesian police, uncovered a major crypto fraud case, recovering $200,000 in illicit funds. The same exchange refuted claims on the dark web of "12.8 million users’ personal data being leaked,” calling it false information.

14) On September 24, 42 Republican lawmakers wrote a joint letter calling for the SEC to repeal the crypto-related bill SAB-121. SEC Chair Gary Gensler faced questions at a congressional hearing regarding crypto regulation and the DEBT Box case. Gensler maintained a “neutral” stance toward blockchain technology.

15) On September 24, Placeholder’s partner noted that many top-tier crypto venture capital firms are often unfairly maligned by those looking to enter the private market and accelerate liquidity.

16) On September 24, OpenAI’s news account on the X platform was hacked, posting fake cryptocurrency information. President Biden called for global rules to regulate AI development. OpenAI proposed building a massive data center for the White House.

17) On September 24, Web3 asset management company Anemoy partnered with oracle provider Chronicle to access real-time data for its on-chain treasury bond fund. Web3 esports platform MTT Sports raised $10 million and will launch a Bitcoin tournament.

18) On September 25, Bitcoin’s market share declined, and the bullish structural trend in the altcoin market led traders to predict the arrival of the “altcoin season”. 10x Research observed a clear market shift post-rate cuts, with traders accumulating altcoins like TAO, ENA, SEI, and APT.

19) On September 25, QCP noted that global easing policies are providing short-term support for asset prices, and ETH’s implied volatility is 9% higher than BTC’s. CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin mining dominance is shifting from China to U.S. mining companies.

20) On September 25, after the Fed rate cuts, the correlation between cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks neared a historic high. Spot gold reached a new all-time high of $2,664, hitting record highs for three consecutive days, while silver surged more than 5%, and the dollar index approached 100.

21) On September 25, Turkey shelved plans to tax gains from the stock and cryptocurrency markets. El Salvador’s president stated that differing opinions will not lead to censorship or confiscation of property.

22) On September 25, Swiss major banks conducted a proof-of-concept for a digital Swiss franc deposit token. BNY Mellon is set to provide custody services for crypto ETFs, while Siemens used JPMorgan’s Onyx blockchain to settle digital commercial paper.

23) On September 25, a Bitcoin address containing 50 BTC was reactivated after being dormant for over 13 years. Another address holding 81 BTC was reactivated after 10.9 years of inactivity.

24) On September 25, IOBC Capital’s partner stated that U.S. and European funds are squeezing the survival space for Asian funds, and investor relations (IR) will become increasingly important. Crypto venture capital firms have raised $2.2 billion in new funds this year. The Tokyo Crypto Parade is set to take place soon.

25) On September 25, WazirX attackers laundered 57,500 ETH, worth approximately $152.4 million, through TornadoCash. Banana Gun provided an update on the “theft,” where 11 users lost $3 million, and all losses will be fully compensated.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.