FameEX Weekly Market Trend | April 17, 2025

1. Key Insights on Crypto Market Trends

From April 14 to 16, the BTC spot price swung from $83,109.24 to $86,370.84, a 3.92% range.

Over the past three days, key remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) include:

1) On April 14, the Fed’s Kashkari stated that the Fed should intervene cautiously and only in truly urgent situations. The risk of recession depends on the progress of trade agreements.

2) On April 15, the Fed’s Bostic indicated that the economy is in a state of significant stagnation, and inflation remains well above the target level. Bold moves “in either direction” would be unwise.

Waller suggested that the new tariff policy is one of the most significant shocks to the U.S. economy in decades. If the current average tariff rate of 25% persists for a period, inflation may peak around 5%. If reduced to 10%, inflation may peak at around 3%. In a large-scale tariff scenario, significant economic slowdown would likely lead to earlier and more aggressive rate cuts. In a smaller tariff scenario, rate cuts may occur in the second half of the year. The inflationary impact of tariffs is expected to be temporary.

3) On April 16, Fed Chair Powell stated that cryptocurrency is gradually becoming mainstream. Establishing a legal framework for stablecoins is a promising idea. Bank regulations related to cryptocurrency are expected to see some easing. AI is still in its early stages.

Harker believed that if growth slows and inflation eases, rate cuts may occur—potentially rapidly. Keeping inflation expectations anchored is key for the Fed.

In general, Fed officials’ overall stance leans toward cutting rates in the second half of this year.

On April 15, The Block reported that Bitcoin has recently shown a significant divergence from traditional assets:

1) Record-Low Correlation: The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has dropped to -0.17, the lowest since 2021. Its correlation with gold is just 0.03.
2) Diverging Fund Flows: While U.S. stock ETFs saw $12.6 billion in outflows last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $483 million.
3) Volatility Gap: Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility stands at 45%, significantly higher than the Nasdaq’s 12%.

Analyst Insights:

1) Decoupling Signal: Matrixport noted that Bitcoin is shifting from a “risk asset” to a “monetary policy hedge.”

2) On-Chain Support: The number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has surpassed 1.2 million, reaching an all-time high — a sign of retail accumulation.

According to The Block, XRP, developed by Ripple, is seen as the most likely crypto asset to gain approval for a spot ETF following Bitcoin and Ethereum. The key reasons are:

Core Advantages

1) Legal Clarity:
In 2023, a court ruled that programmatic sales of XRP do not constitute securities (SEC vs. Ripple case).
Compared to other altcoins like SOL and ADA, which are still facing regulatory lawsuits, XRP enjoys the clearest legal status.
2) Institutional Infrastructure:
XRP futures were listed on CME in March 2024.
Custody solutions have passed SEC review (in partnership with Coinbase).

 

Market Expectations

1) Bloomberg ETF analysts estimate a 65%+ chance of approval before Q1 2025.
2) If approved, the ETF could attract $5 billion in inflows in its first year.
3) Ripple’s shares are currently trading at a 15% premium in OTC markets.

Here’s a summary of key points from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s April 16 speech:

1) Interest Rate Outlook: High uncertainty remains. The Fed is in a good position and will wait for clearer signals before considering any policy shifts.
2) Economic Outlook: The U.S. economy remains “resilient”. Strong imports in Q1 may drag on GDP, with growth potentially slower than last year.
3) Inflation Outlook: Tariff impacts may be more prolonged and are expected to push inflation higher. March PCE is projected at 2.3% YoY, and core PCE at 2.6%.
4) Labor Market: Generally balanced, but reduced funding for research may significantly impact employment. Unemployment is expected to rise.
5) Tariff Effects: Recent tariff hikes have exceeded expectations. Policies are still evolving, and their impacts remain highly uncertain.
6) Cryptocurrency: Crypto is gradually becoming mainstream. A legal framework for stablecoins is needed, and bank regulations may see “partial easing”.
7) Independence: The Fed’s independence is legally granted. It will not be influenced by political pressure.
8) Other Remarks: Don’t expect the Fed to bail out markets. If dollar shortages occur, the Fed is prepared to provide liquidity to global central banks.

Some market makers are turning token loans into profit machines—at the expense of small crypto projects, which may spiral into collapse as a result. This controversial strategy, known as the “loan-option model”, involves project teams lending tokens to market makers. In return, the market makers provide liquidity, help stabilize prices, and assist in getting the token listed on crypto exchanges. On the surface, these arrangements are marketed as “low-risk, high-reward” opportunities for the project. But behind the scenes, some market makers are exploiting the token loan structure to benefit themselves, often to the detriment of fledgling crypto teams.

According to Ariel Givner, founder of Givner Law, “The model works like this: a market maker borrows tokens from the project at a set price. In exchange, they promise to help list these tokens on major exchanges. If they fail to deliver, they must repay the tokens—often at a higher price—within a year.” In practice, however, these market makers often dump the borrowed tokens, causing an initial price crash. They then buy the tokens back at the lower price, pocketing the difference and leaving the project to deal with the fallout.

2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators

Overall market cap and volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Altcoin Season Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

CoinMarketCap 100 Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/cmc100/

(Used to measure the overall performance of the top 100 cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap)

Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Over the past three days, the total crypto market cap, trading volume, and overall market activity have remained relatively stable. Altcoin prices have seen a slight overall rebound.

Major cryptocurrencies and large-cap altcoins have also experienced modest price recoveries in the spot market. The current Fear & Greed Index stands at 30, slowly moving away from the recent bottomed-out fear zone.

3. Perpetual Futures

Source: CoinAnk

The 7-day cumulative funding rates for BTC and ETH on the top 8 exchanges are 0.1573% and 0.531%, respectively, indicating strong bullish sentiment across the market as of April 17. The bull market remains intact.

4. Global Economic and Crypto Sector Developments

Macroeconomy

1) On April 14, former U.S. President Trump stated that the bond market was not the reason for pausing tariffs; the U.S. government had not announced any tariff “exemptions”, only that certain products were moved to a different tariff category. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said the U.S. had made significant progress in tariff negotiations with the EU.
2) On April 14, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank would guide monetary policy appropriately from the perspective of sustainably achieving the 2% inflation target, while assessing the economy, prices, and financial conditions without preconceptions.
3) On April 14, the U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that there is no evidence that sovereign investors are selling off U.S. assets. There are tools available to address bond market volatility, though it’s not time to use them. The Fed Chair’s successor will be interviewed this fall. The UK, Australia, South Korea, India, and Japan are identified as top priorities for trade agreements.
4) On April 14, the Trump administration announced plans to halve the State Department’s budget in fiscal year 2026, cutting over $30 billion. This significant reduction may lead to the closure of nearly 30 U.S. diplomatic missions and cut foreign aid by nearly 75%.
5) On April 15, the State Council of China announced the dismissal of Wang Shouwen as Vice Minister of Commerce and Chief Negotiator for International Trade, appointing Li Chenggang as his replacement (at full ministerial rank).
6) On April 15, a European Central Bank survey showed that banks slightly tightened credit standards and reported a modest decline in demand for corporate loans in Q1.
7) On April 15, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that if U.S. tariffs harm Japan’s economy, the central bank may need to respond.
8) On April 16, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held interest rates steady at 2.75%, ending a streak of seven consecutive cuts. March meeting minutes showed that if not for tariff risks, policymakers may have kept rates unchanged, and the rate cuts were mainly preemptive against uncertainties.
9) On April 16, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said last month that Trump’s unpredictable tariff policy has created extreme uncertainty, requiring greater caution until conditions become clear, and quicker action once they do.
10) On April 16, China’s Ministry of Commerce responded to U.S. tariff hikes on certain Chinese goods up to 245%: The U.S. is weaponizing tariffs irrationally, and China will not engage on the matter.
11) On April 16, CNBC reported that the U.S. Customs said the new tariff policy has brought in $500 million in revenue, far less than Trump’s estimates.
12) On April 16, CNBC cited the World Trade Organization: If the U.S. raises tariffs, the global economy could shrink by 1.5% in 2025.

Cryptocurrency Industry Updates:

1) On April 14, Bloomberg indicated that a crypto project involving the Trump family had generated nearly $1 billion in paper profits.
2) On April 14, OKX responded to the OM crash: it will prepare all reports, as data from all major exchanges may be investigated.
3) On April 14, according to analysis, a potential disruption in the U.S. bond market may force the Fed to intervene and could drive investors toward Bitcoin. The BTC-gold correlation is “cracking,” and the recent weakness might be due to bullish sentiment being fully priced in after BTC peaked at $109,000.
4) On April 14, a survey showed that around 21% of Americans own cryptocurrency, and 76% of them report making a profit.
5) On April 14, BlackRock’s CEO stated that the U.S. might already be in a recession, but new liquidity injections could act as a catalyst for crypto.
6) On April 14, it was reported that Donald Trump’s second son is expected to attend this month’s TOKEN2049 conference in Dubai.
7) On April 14, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes said China’s full response to U.S. trade tariffs could lead to capital flight into Bitcoin and crypto. If the yuan depreciates, “capital will flow into Bitcoin,” adding, “it worked in 2013 and 2015, and it will work in 2025.”
8) On April 15, HKEX said it is open to using blockchain and related technologies to solve existing issues in the carbon market.
9) On April 15, it was reported that Google would implement new crypto ad regulations in Europe under the MiCA framework starting April 23.
10) On April 15, in Q1 2025, companies increased their Bitcoin holdings by 95,431 BTC, pushing listed firms’ total reserves above 1.2 million BTC (6.1% of circulating supply). Key drivers include new FASB rules allowing crypto to be marked to market, firms hedging local currency depreciation, and easier access via spot ETFs. Corporate buying in the quarter exceeded newly mined BTC by 210%, intensifying the supply-demand imbalance.
11) On April 15, Bitcoin delivered a 7,200,000% return over 14 years, far surpassing the S&P 500’s 306% and gold’s 116%.
12) On April 15, a court in Shandong Province, China, heard a telecom fraud case involving virtual currency “pig butchering” scams worth over RMB 40 million.
13) On April 15, State Street Hong Kong announced plans to expand its digital asset AUM to $5 billion and will launch a crypto investment app with Galaxy.
14) On April 16, Solana-based payments protocol Solayer launched a non-custodial crypto debit card.
15) On April 16, Matrixport indicated that inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are concentrated among top institutions, reflecting stronger institutional than retail demand.
16) On April 16, Nigerian crypto exchange CBEX was exposed as a Ponzi scheme, with total losses nearing $12 million.
17) On April 16, it was reported that the first batch of Solana spot ETFs is launching in Canada this week.
18) On April 16, the decentralized exchange KiloEx suffered a hack, and the team initiated legal proceedings.
19) On April 16, data showed nearly half of South Korea’s crypto “whales” are investors aged 50 and over.
20) On April 16, Panama authorized government institutions to accept payments in BTC, ETH, and other cryptocurrencies.

Regulation & Crypto Policy:

1) On April 14, Trump's digital asset advisor proposed using tariff revenue to buy Bitcoin to build a national strategic reserve, stating that such a reserve would validate BTC’s value.
2) On April 14, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security launched an investigation into crypto bank Anchorage over anti-money laundering issues.
3) On April 14, South Korea blocked 14 cryptocurrency exchanges on Apple’s App Store.
4) On April 15, a survey found that none of the 91 central banks worldwide currently invest in digital assets, and over half oppose holding Bitcoin in strategic reserves.
5) On April 15, the U.S. SEC completed a review of Coinbase’s financial disclosures after more than two years, with no amendments or restatements required.
6) On April 15, crypto firm Hayvn was fined $12.45 million and had its license revoked in Abu Dhabi for lacking anti-money laundering controls.
7) On April 16, the Governor of California said he would file a lawsuit to stop Trump’s tariff policy.
8) On April 16, the U.S. Secret Service launched “Operation Avalanche” to crack down on phishing scams on the Ethereum network.
9) On April 16, Hong Kong Customs estimated there are about 200 physical crypto OTC stores and ATMs across the city, none of which are currently regulated.

 

Other News:

1) On April 14, WeChat Pay partnered with global payments giant Stripe to accelerate its international expansion.
2) On April 14, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said Trump’s trade war has pushed the U.S. “to the edge of recession”.
3) On April 15, Elon Musk stated that a universal, pure AI solution for full self-driving will emerge soon. Meanwhile, OpenAI is reportedly planning to launch a social network that could directly challenge X and Meta.
4) On April 16, Bank of America’s global fund manager survey showed that 49% of respondents view “going long on gold” as the most crowded trade, ending a 24-month streak dominated by “long U.S. tech’s Magnificent Seven.” Nearly 61% of respondents expect the U.S. dollar to depreciate in the next 12 months.
5) On April 16, spot gold continued its rally, surpassing $3,300/oz for the first time ever, surging $70 in a day with a gain of over 2%.

5. Market Outlook

Source: BTCUSDT | FameEX 

From April 17 to April 23, the medium-term trading strategy will still be applied: for the BTC spot, maintain the sell order at $169,400 and the buy orders at $73,970, $59,935, and $45,900, respectively. It is recommended to place a sell order for the ETH spot at $5,125 and set buy orders for bottom-fishing at $1,240.

Macroeconomic factors—especially trade policy and interest rate expectations—are increasingly driving the behavior of crypto markets, temporarily overriding the traditional supply-demand structure. Whether this correlation persists will be key to understanding Bitcoin’s long-term positioning and its diversified value proposition. The crypto market is entering a complex macro environment, shaped by trade policy risks, stagflationary pressures, and a breakdown in global coordination.

“The day central banks print money is the day Bitcoin ascends the throne.”

If global growth remains weak and the crypto market fails to establish a compelling narrative, investor sentiment may continue to deteriorate.

On April 15, CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan noted that in past cycles, the market would typically heat up rapidly, with sharp price surges and a wave of short-term holders entering. However, in the current cycle, despite price increases, overall market sentiment remains unusually subdued.

The share of Bitcoin held for 1 week to 1 month is significantly lower than in previous cycles—in other words, there is a lack of explosive new capital and participation. Two key factors explain this shift:

1) The nature of liquidity has changed. The 2020–2021 bull market occurred under near-zero interest rates and aggressive quantitative easing—an abnormal macro backdrop. Today, we remain in an environment of high interest rates and tight liquidity. Capital is no longer freely flowing, making large-scale, explosive rallies harder to sustain.
2) Market leadership has shifted from retail to institutions. Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the market has become more structured, with institutional capital playing an increasingly dominant role. This inflow of capital supports a more gradual, “stair-step” price appreciation, rather than the rapid, euphoric spikes seen in the past. As a result, the market now appears far more cautious.

Given these structural changes, some on-chain indicators may suggest the current cycle has already peaked. This cycle may not follow the familiar boom-and-bust pattern of the past. Instead, we may be in a longer and more complex market structure. ETF inflows continue, and the macro environment could gradually ease. A meaningful market phase is still possible in 2025.

Risk Reminder: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors are advised to control their positions and implement stop-loss strategies. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice from this exchange.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.