Pro-XRP Attorney Predicts the SEC's Lawsuit Victory by Less Than 3%

According to lawyer John Deaton, there is a 25% possibility that Ripple will prevail in its legal battle with the SEC outright, even amidst circulating rumors of an IPO.

Source: decrypt.co

As the long-running litigation comes to a finish, pro-XRP attorney John Deaton has predicted that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has a less than 3% chance of outright defeating Ripple. The SEC sued Ripple in December 2020, claiming that the sale of its XRP coin constituted an unregistered securities offering. However, the inventor of CryptoLaw has been a strong supporter of Ripple in this case.

Deaton predicted a 25% chance that the U.S. District Judge Torres would rule in Ripple's favor outright and a 50% chance that Ripple would win by splitting the baby in an edition of The Good Morning Crypto podcast broadcast on June 3.

The phrase drawing a line in the sand alludes to Judge Torress potentially declaring that XRP was sold as an unregistered security prior to 2018. According to the Hinman papers, which reference a 2018 lecture by former SEC Director William Hinman, it's feasible that cryptocurrencies can change from securities to commodities if they become sufficiently decentralized.

I think secondary market sales show that XRP will not be viewed as a security in and of itself. Even if [Judge Torres] rules that Ripple broke the law, this does not apply to sales made on the secondary market, according to Deaton. Deaton emphasized that Judge Torres will probably provide a judgment by September 30 of this year, despite the fact that Ripple officials, including its CEO Brad Garlinghouse, have long predicted an impending end to the rollercoaster litigation from the SEC.

District judges are required to provide a six-month list to Congress, according to Deaton. All summary judgments that have been pending for more than six months are listed on the list. It is released on the final day of both March and September.

Judge Torres has never been included on this list, thus resembling a public list of shame that implies incompetence in one's work. Deaton also forecasted how much the native XRP coin of Ripple would cost after a favorable decision, saying: "I'm sure there's somewhere where $2 and $10 are affordable."

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