FameEX Hot Topics | Potential Bitcoin Drop to $91K Doesn’t Undermine Strong Fundamentals

Bitcoin spot demand may slow this week, but both on-chain and technical indicators continue to reflect solid market fundamentals, potentially paving the way for new all-time highs. While short-term volatility remains a concern, analysts remain upbeat. Standard Chartered has forecast a Bitcoin price between $110,000 and $120,000 by the second quarter of 2025. This bullish sentiment is grounded in recent performance data—Bitcoin closed the week near $94,000, achieving a 53.61% year-over-year return. The momentum signals a shift from early 2024’s exuberance to a more mature and sustainable bull trend driven by organic growth.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. highlighted that the realized price—a measure reflecting the average price at which coins last moved—has climbed 61.82% year-over-year. In contrast, the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has declined by 8.98%. This divergence is seen as a healthy sign, indicating that long-term holders are increasing their cost basis faster than speculative traders are pushing up market prices. Historically, a negative MVRV has often preceded strong rallies, suggesting Bitcoin may still be undervalued and offering room for further appreciation.

Further on-chain data reinforces this view. Realized prices across holding cohorts show that short-term (one-month) holders have a cost basis roughly 5% lower than the six-month cohort, reflecting a reduction in speculative premiums. This pattern closely resembles past accumulation phases and suggests that the current market is within five to six weeks of the average 180-day point—typically when upward momentum accelerates. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, attributes part of this bullish outlook to U.S. investors reallocating capital abroad amid Trump-era trade tensions.

Nonetheless, risks remain in the short term. Funding rates in the Bitcoin futures market turned briefly negative between April 24–25 but have since flipped positive. This shift suggests an overconcentration of long positions, increasing the likelihood of a long squeeze—a market event where a sharp drop forces leveraged traders to exit, amplifying the decline. Such a move could drag BTC down to $90,500.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has dropped 1.58% since U.S. markets opened on April 28. A bearish divergence in the RSI and failure to stay above $95,000 point to a potential re-test of the fair-value gap between $90,500 and $88,750—a critical short-term support zone.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.