FameEX Hot Topics | Vaneck Director Suggests People Often Overlook the Long-Term Significance of Spot Bitcoin ETFs

Gabor Gurbacs, Vaneck's Director of Digital Assets Strategy, recently shared insights on the long-term impact of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the social media platform X. Vaneck is one of the asset management firms applying to launch a spot bitcoin ETF with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Gurbacs emphasized that while the initial impact of U.S. bitcoin ETFs might be overestimated – expected to be a few hundred million dollars in largely recycled funds – their long-term significance is often underappreciated. He believes that Bitcoin is shaping its own capital markets systems and products beyond just the ETF, which is not yet fully reflected in its valuation.

Drawing parallels with gold, Gurbacs referenced his previous post outlining how the approval of a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF could potentially create trillions of dollars in value for Bitcoin, much like gold's journey post-2004. He noted that after the introduction of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) on November 18, 2004, gold's price quadrupled over eight years, adding approximately $8 trillion in market cap. He suggested that Bitcoin could follow a similar trajectory, but at a faster pace, considering its current market cap of about $750 billion, which is less than a third of gold's market cap in 2004.

Gurbacs also believes that the adoption of bitcoin ETPs (exchange-traded products) will contribute a few tens of billions to Bitcoin's market value, though this influx won't happen immediately. However, he expects the impact to be significant due to Bitcoin's limited supply and strong hands/long-term holders, coupled with its systematic scarcity driven by halving schedules.

Furthermore, Gurbacs predicts that the legitimization and destigmatization of Bitcoin through an ETF will lead to broader adoption beyond the ETF itself. He envisions nation-states and sovereign wealth funds holding Bitcoin directly and investing in Bitcoin-based capital markets and mining. He pointed out that central banks' gold adoption outside of ETPs was a significant driver of gold's price increase, and he believes ETPs played a crucial role in making gold an accepted asset class.

Gurbacs’ analysis suggests that the approval of a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF could be a transformative event for Bitcoin, legitimizing it in mainstream financial portfolios and potentially leading to widespread adoption by various financial entities, including nation-states and central banks. This could have far-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency market, potentially positioning Bitcoin as a major asset class in the global financial system.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for informational purposes only, doesn't represent any investment advice or FameEX's official view.