FameEX Weekly Market Trend | March 27, 2025
2025-03-27 10:07:07
1. Key Insights on Crypto Market Trends
From March 24 to March 26, the BTC spot price swung from $85,883.33 to $88,507.9, a 3.06% range. The price increase during this period was mainly driven by expectations of U.S. tariff adjustments on April 2, followed by Trump’s endorsement of the TRUMP token and U.S. states advancing Bitcoin strategic reserve bills.
The key statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) over the past three days are as follows:
1) On March 24, Fed’s Bostic stated that he foresaw only one rate cut this year, expected the disinflation process to be very bumpy, hoped the current pace of balance sheet reduction would continue until it fully stopped, believed it was appropriate to slow the balance sheet runoff to ensure the Fed did not go too far, and did not expect inflation to return to 2% before early 2027.
2) On March 25, Fed Governor Kugler stated that the current Fed policy remains restrictive and is in a good position, and that the Fed can keep interest rates unchanged for “an extended period”.
3) On March 26, Fed’s Goolsbee stated that due to economic uncertainty, the next rate cut might take longer than expected. If investor expectations start aligning with household expectations, the Fed will need to act. He also warned that the U.S. bond market is beginning to expect higher inflation levels, which would be a “major danger signal”.
Fed’s Kashkari stated that significant progress has been made in reducing inflation, but more work remains. He noted that the job market remains strong and the biggest challenge is completing the task.
4) On March 25, ECB Governing Council member Escriva stated that downside risks to economic expectations outweigh the upside risks.
5) On March 26, ECB Governing Council member Villeroy stated that the 25% increase in U.S. tariffs in the second quarter would have a limited impact on European inflation but might lead to a 0.3 percentage point decline in the Eurozone’s annual GDP.
The statements from the three Fed officials and two ECB officials have been generally hawkish, with Kashkari’s remarks leaning dovish.
As of now, 26 U.S. states have introduced Bitcoin reserve bills, meaning that more than half of the 50 states may adopt Bitcoin. Many states have proposed allocating up to 10% of state funds to cryptocurrencies. Notably, Wisconsin has become the first U.S. state to purchase a Bitcoin ETF, holding $588 million worth as of Q4 2024.
Industry data shows that Ethereum’s price has fallen 37.98% in Q1 2025 so far, marking its largest first-quarter drop since a 46.61% decline in 2018. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has dropped 6.49% in Q1, recording its worst first-quarter performance since 2020.
2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators
Overall market cap and volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Altcoin Season Index and Bitcoin Dominance: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Crypto ETFs Net Flow: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
CoinMarketCap 100 Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/cmc100/
(Used to measure the overall performance of the top 100 cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap)
Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Over the past three days, there has been little change in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, trading volume, market activity, altcoin season index, and Bitcoin dominance.
ETF funds continue to see net inflows, boosting market confidence. Meanwhile, the prices of major cryptocurrencies and large-cap altcoins have been rising slightly. The current Fear & Greed Index stands at 33, aligning with expectations of a rebound from recent lows.
3. Perpetual Futures
The 7-day cumulative funding rates for BTC and ETH on the top 8 exchanges are 0.0594% and 0.8778%, respectively, indicating a strong bullish sentiment across the market, with expectations of a continued uptrend.
Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:
Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:
Over the past three days, BTC contract open interest has seen a slight increase, while ETH has risen significantly, indicating that risk-tolerant market participants are more optimistic about short-term rebound opportunities for ETH and smaller altcoins.
4. Global Economic and Crypto Sector Developments
Macroeconomy
1) On March 24, President Trump announced that starting April 2, a 25% tariff would be imposed on all countries purchasing Venezuelan oil and gas, and new tariffs would soon be introduced on industries such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, lumber, and chips, with potential exemptions for certain countries on a reciprocal basis. The U.S. Secretary of Commerce stated that the April 2 tariff announcement would launch the “Foreign Revenue Agency”.
2) On March 24, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that if economic and price trends align with the projections in the quarterly outlook report, interest rates are expected to rise further, and underlying inflation is expected to gradually accelerate.
3) On March 24, President Trump reiterated that he would soon introduce “reciprocal tariffs”, an idea he first mentioned a month and a half ago. As of March 24, foreign investors have been withdrawing from the stock markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam for six consecutive months, with Indonesia’s stock index falling below 6,000 for the first time in four years. On March 26, Vietnam announced tariff cuts on several U.S. goods.
4) On March 25, the UK Spring Budget Statement projected that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2025 would be 3.2% (higher than the 2.6% forecast in October), for 2026 would be 2.1% (lower than the 2.3% October forecast), and would fall back to 2% in 2027.
5) On March 25, the UK’s February CPI monthly rate was reported at 0.4%, below the expected 0.5% but higher than the previous -0.1%.
6) On March 25, it was announced that key U.S. economic data would be released on Thursday, including initial jobless claims, the final Q4 real GDP annualized growth rate, the final real personal consumption expenditure growth rate, and the final core PCE price index annualized growth rate.
7) On March 26, it was announced that key U.S. economic data would be released on Friday, including the February core PCE price index (YoY), February personal spending (MoM), and the February core PCE price index (MoM).
Cryptocurrency Industry Updates:
1) On March 24, Trump posted late at night: “I LOVE $TRUMP — SO COOL!!! The Greatest of them all!!!” TRUMP surged in response. A whale address that bought in after Trump’s endorsement is now down $197,000.
2) On March 24, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stated that he holds Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.
3) On March 24, South Korea’s Ministry of Science and ICT announced plans to raise a 40 billion KRW “Metaverse Fund” for investment management firms.
4) On March 25, Infini responded to the $50 million fund loss incident, stating that it had filed a lawsuit and applied for asset freezes.
5) On March 25, BlackRock announced plans to launch a Bitcoin ETP in Europe.
6) On March 25, Trump Media & Technology Group partnered with Crypto.com to launch a “Made in America” themed ETF.
7) On March 26, ETF experts commented on the conclusion of the Ripple case, stating that the approval of an XRP ETF is only a matter of time.
8) On March 26, a survey revealed that over 37% of investors consider security risks the main barrier to crypto payments.
9) On March 26, eToro launched a crypto-to-fiat exchange service in the UK.
10) On March 26, the global number of crypto ATMs had decreased by 2,062 since peaking in 2022.
11) On March 26, Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission released a draft of the “Virtual Asset Service Act” for a 60-day public consultation period.
Regulation & Crypto Policy:
1) On March 24, the U.S. SEC planned to establish a new Presidential Crypto Task Force 2.0 to further advance digital asset regulation. The SEC’s crypto task force announced that it would hold four new roundtable discussions on regulatory issues over the next three months.
2) On March 24, Thai police arrested two Chinese nationals suspected of cryptocurrency fraud, involving approximately $17.7 million.
3) On March 24, the Bank of Korea announced that it would conduct real-world tests for its central bank digital currency next month.
4) On March 25, the Oklahoma House of Representatives passed the “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill”, while Kentucky officially signed the “Bitcoin Rights Act”, protecting self-custody and node operation rights.
5) On March 25, North Carolina’s Bitcoin Investment Bill proposed the creation of an investment management authority to allocate 5% of state funds to digital assets.
6) On March 26, the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) proposed removing “reputational risk” from its regulatory standards, which could benefit the crypto industry. The White House’s crypto and AI chief called the FDIC’s decision a major victory for the sector. Additionally, most U.S. financial advisors plan to increase investments in crypto ETFs this year.
7) On March 26, market analysts suggested that a shift in Fed policy could trigger a Bitcoin surge, noting that previous QE cycles had driven BTC up by 1,000%.
Other News:
1) On March 25, OpenAI launched the GPT-4o image generation feature, available to all ChatGPT users.
2) On March 25, OpenAI and Google introduced real-time AI video features for Gemini.
3) On March 26, DeepSeek released version V3-0324, significantly improving reasoning performance and tool usage capabilities.
5. Market Outlook
From March 27 to March 30, the medium-term trading strategy will still be applied: for the BTC spot, maintain the sell order at $169,400 and the buy orders at $73,970, $59,935, and $45,900, respectively.
For the ETH spot, sell orders are placed at $5,125, while dip-buy orders are set at $1,730.
Bitcoin’s rebound, after hitting a two-week high on Monday, is at risk of faltering, showing signs of a “bull trap” amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. Potential tariff hikes and inflation concerns continue to weigh on Bitcoin’s price.
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin surged to $88,786 on Monday, but funding rates turned negative, indicating traders’ reluctance to pay a premium for opening new long positions in the perpetual futures market, signaling a cooling demand for leverage.
SignalPlus partner Augustine Fan noted that market clarity depends on the key policy event on April 2. The next major catalyst will be the “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, as the Trump administration plans to unveil a new round of tariffs, potentially reigniting macro policy uncertainty and disrupting the crypto market balance.
Risk Reminder: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors are advised to control their positions and implement stop-loss strategies. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice from this exchange.
Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.