FameEX Weekly Market Trend | March 31, 2025
2025-03-31 10:29:08
1. Key Insights on Crypto Market Trends
From March 27 to March 30, the BTC spot price swung from $81,198.37 to $87,776.03, an 8.1% range.
The key statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) over the past three days are as follows:
1) On March 27, Goolsbee stated that the U.S. Treasury market is beginning to expect higher inflation, which is a “major warning signal”.
Moussalem noted that given sustained economic growth, there is currently no need to rush rate cuts, and tariffs could lead to persistent inflation.
Kashkari emphasized that the Fed should hold steady for an extended period amid policy uncertainty.
2) On March 28, Collins highlighted that inflation risks are tilted to the upside and strongly supported the Fed’s resolve to keep rates unchanged.
3) `On March 29, Daly mentioned that a reasonable expectation would be two rate cuts in 2025 and that monetary policy should remain cautious to give industries time to adapt to tariffs. She also noted that Friday’s PCE inflation data confirmed her declining confidence in her baseline forecast.
Barr stated that artificial intelligence could have a significant impact on productivity and the economy.
Overall, Fed officials have expressed support for maintaining current rates, while European Central Bank officials have not made any public statements in the past four days.
He Yi shared her personal reflections on meme culture on social media, stating that memes transcend cultural boundaries, serving as the ultimate expression of communities and the influence of subcultures on mainstream culture. Every culture resonates with certain groups, and memes do not follow trends—they create them.
Dogecoin, as a symbol of crypto culture, proves that memes originate from community consensus rather than celebrity endorsements. True memes stem from cultural accumulation, not fleeting hype. Long-termism remains valid, and investors should operate based on market cycles, knowing when to hold or take profits. The crypto market will stabilize over time, and opportunities will always exist. She also mentioned that most of her assets are in tokens and that long-term holding is not suitable for most people, but some principles can be referenced: profiting from economic cycles by selling in bull markets and buying in bear markets; allocating at least 20% of assets to tokens; and limiting leverage or high-risk token investments to no more than 10% of disposable assets. Most importantly, understanding principles is easy, but applying them—like dieting—is difficult.
Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher tweeted that there are around 37 million tokens in the current crypto market, with 99.9% being “air projects”. He believes that fewer than 100 projects meet key criteria: having an experienced team, demonstrating long-term bullish sentiment through net buying rather than net selling, possessing a clear business model and roadmap for sustainable profitability, achieving real product-market fit or a clear path to it, delivering consistently regardless of market conditions, establishing genuine competitive advantages, and aligning with macro trends such as AI, RWA, and stablecoins. He emphasized that investors must identify and make long-term bets on these high-potential protocols.
The Chamber of Digital Commerce officially released the U.S. Blockchain Roadmap, aiming to ensure the U.S. maintains leadership in economic competitiveness, national security, and digital innovation. The roadmap calls for the Treasury to enact stablecoin and Bitcoin legislation and outlines six key pillars: strengthening financial stability through digital assets, protecting financial freedom and decentralization, leading global capital markets with regulatory clarity, enhancing energy security through Bitcoin mining, modernizing the U.S. banking system, and exploring blockchain applications in government innovation and national security.
2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators
Overall market cap and volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Altcoin Season Index and Bitcoin Dominance: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Crypto ETFs Net Flow: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
CoinMarketCap 100 Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/cmc100/
(Used to measure the overall performance of the top 100 cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap)
Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Over the past four days, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization and trading volume have continued to decline, leading to reduced market activity. The altcoin season index indicates a sharp drop in altcoin performance.
ETF funds are experiencing net outflows, reflecting weak market confidence. Meanwhile, the prices of major cryptocurrencies and large-cap altcoins are also on a downward trend. The current Fear & Greed Index stands at 24, approaching a recent bottom.
3. Perpetual Futures
The 7-day cumulative funding rates for BTC and ETH on the top 8 exchanges are 0.7532% and 0.663%, respectively, indicating a strong bullish sentiment across the market, with expectations of a continued uptrend.
Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:
Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:
Over the past four days, BTC and ETH contract open interest has significantly declined, indicating that high-risk appetite market participants are reducing positions and leverage. Risk aversion sentiment remains strong.
4. Global Economic and Crypto Sector Developments
Macroeconomy
1) On March 27, PBoC Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng stated that the central bank would consider cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates at an appropriate time based on domestic and global economic conditions.
2) On March 27, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 11 recorded 224,000. The U.S. Q4 real GDP annualized growth rate was revised up to 2.4%, while the Q4 core PCE price index annualized growth rate was revised down to 2.6%.
3) On March 28, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 22 stood at 224,000, in line with expectations of 225,000, with the previous figure revised from 223,000 to 225,000.
4) On March 28, the U.K. Q4 final GDP annual growth rate was 1.5%, exceeding the expected 1.4% and the previous reading of 1.4%.
5) On March 29, Canada’s January GDP grew by 0.4% month-over-month, above the expected 0.3%. The previous figure was revised from 0.2% to 0.3%.
6) On March 29, the U.S. February core PCE price index annual growth rate was 2.8%, the highest since December 2024, exceeding market expectations of 2.7%.
7) On March 30, key data releases scheduled for next Tuesday include Japan’s February unemployment rate, China’s March Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the Eurozone’s February unemployment rate, and the U.S. March ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Wednesday, the U.S. March ADP employment report is set to be released, and former President Trump is expected to implement reciprocal and industry-specific tariffs.
8) On March 30, key data releases scheduled for next Thursday include China’s March Caixin Services PMI and the U.S. March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. On Friday, the U.S. March unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data are set to be released, and Fed Chair Powell is expected to deliver a keynote speech.
Cryptocurrency Industry Updates:
1) On March 27, the U.S. Senate passed a bill to repeal a controversial crypto tax rule, with Trump expected to sign it.
2) On March 27, a survey found that less than 20% of banks and financial institutions in Europe currently offer crypto services.
3) On March 27, a Grayscale report highlighted that Story has surged into the crypto Top 20, with IP tokens leading in growth.
4) On March 28, the New York Attorney General and Galaxy Digital reached a $200 million settlement over issues related to LUNA.
5) On March 28, the 2025 Hurun Global Rich List ranked CZ (Changpeng Zhao) as the richest figure in the crypto industry with a fortune of ¥160 billion. CZ stated that he has raised the price of his paid consulting service to 0.2 BNB and will continue adjusting pricing to limit daily messages to around 10.
6) On March 28, according to Whale Alert, Tether Treasury minted 1 billion USDT on the Tron blockchain.
7) On March 29, it was reported that Labs would open its crypto asset loss claims portal on March 31, with a deadline of April 30.
8) On March 29, Sonic Labs canceled its plan to launch a USD-pegged algorithmic stablecoin and instead opted to develop an alternative denominated in UAE dirhams.
9) On March 30, FTX’s repayment process for major creditors was slowed due to a large number of fraudulent claims under review.
10) On March 30, in South Korea, new investors accounted for about 33% of crypto traders last year, with memecoin investments exceeding half of total crypto holdings. The total number of crypto exchange users in the country reached 16.29 million, representing 32% of the population—surpassing the number of stock investors.
11) On March 30, it was reported that between March 31 and April 6, 28 tokens would undergo one-time unlocks. Notably, OP, SOL, W, CHELL, and ENA will each unlock over $20 million in value.
Regulation & Crypto Policy:
1) On March 27, the U.S. House of Representatives was set to release a revised draft of the Crypto Market Structure Bill. Representative Emmer reintroduced the Securities Clarity Act, aiming to define regulatory boundaries for crypto assets.
2) On March 27, North Carolina proposed a bill allowing pension funds to invest in crypto assets, with a maximum allocation of 5%.
3) On March 27, the U.S. SEC officially dropped lawsuits against Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland. Incoming SEC Chair nominee Paul Atkins reportedly holds $6 million in crypto-related assets.
4) On March 28, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce stated that the Crypto Working Group welcomes reasonable exemptions and applications for no-action relief.
5) On March 28, the Central Bank of the UAE expected to launch its central bank digital currency (CBDC) in Q4 2025.
6) On March 28, U.S. SEC Chair nominee Paul Atkins pledged to further investigate the FTX collapse. He stated that if confirmed, he would collaborate with the DOGE Government Efficiency Department and adopt a technology-neutral approach to financial AI regulation. He also emphasized that crypto regulation is a top priority given the current complexity of financial oversight.
7) On March 29, EU regulators aimed for 100% capital coverage for insurers holding crypto assets.
8) On March 29, the FDIC issued new guidelines outlining procedures for banks engaging in crypto-related activities. David Sacks commented that these guidelines will make it easier for banks to participate in crypto, further driving mainstream adoption.
9) On March 29, Trump pardoned the three co-founders of BitMEX.
10) On March 30, a senior Brazilian official stated that Bitcoin reserves are “crucial” to Brazil’s economic prosperity.
11) On March 30, Christopher Hui, Hong Kong’s Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, announced that the government is drafting tax exemption amendments for family offices, covering virtual assets, private lending, and other areas. Acting Chief Executive Eric Chan stated that Hong Kong’s stablecoin regulatory framework could be implemented as early as the end of the year.
12) On March 30, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) announced that it is considering regulations on insider trading of crypto assets.
Other News:
1) On March 27, the former Vice Chairman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, Xu Xianping, was placed under investigation.
2) On March 27, ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming topped China’s rich list, becoming the country’s wealthiest individual.
3) On March 28, market sources reported that Elon Musk plans to resign as head of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency in May. xAI acquired X in an all-stock transaction, valuing the two companies at $80 billion and $33 billion, respectively.
4) On March 28, a 7.9-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar, resulting in 1,002 fatalities. In response, Thailand’s Prime Minister declared a state of emergency in Bangkok.
5) On March 29, several European countries began daylight saving time, shifting financial market trading hours one hour earlier than in winter.
6) On March 29, if Iran fails to reach a nuclear agreement with the U.S., it faces potential airstrikes and secondary tariffs.
7) On March 30, Goldman Sachs reported that hedge funds sold off a large volume of global tech stocks this week, marking the second-largest sell-off in nearly five years.
5. Market Outlook
From March 31 to April 2, the medium-term trading strategy will still be applied: for the BTC spot, maintain the sell order at $169,400 and the buy orders at $73,970, $59,935, and $45,900, respectively.
For the ETH spot, sell orders are placed at $5,125, while dip-buy orders are set at $1,730.
In its latest report, Citigroup predicted three main scenarios for U.S. Tariff Policy Day on April 2 and analyzed their potential market impact:
1) Announcement of reciprocal tariffs only: The market reaction would likely be limited.
2) Reciprocal tariffs plus a value-added tax (VAT): The U.S. dollar index could immediately rise by 50-100 basis points, while global stock markets may decline.
3) Reciprocal tariffs, VAT, and industry-specific tariffs: This scenario could trigger a more severe market reaction.
The report also noted that following the worst first-quarter start for the S&P 500 since 2020, analysts are increasingly warning that downside risks outweigh upside potential. It emphasized that future tariffs and retaliatory measures will be key factors, and the market’s reaction on April 2 will depend on the timing of the tariffs—particularly industry-specific tariffs—and how quickly other countries respond to the reciprocal tariffs.
Risk Reminder: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors are advised to control their positions and implement stop-loss strategies. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice from this exchange.
Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.